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collapse study danish says atlantic headed

Danish study says Atlantic headed for collapse

Danish study says Atlantic headed for collapse.

Atlantic Current System (AMOC) Gives Warning Signals as published today in Nature Communications

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a complex system of ocean currents that carry warm water from the tropics northward. A new study from the University of Copenhagen (Denmark), published today in Nature Communications, estimates that its collapse could happen by mid-century, or potentially any time after 2025.

In 2018, two separate investigations came to the same conclusion: the planet's circulatory system was weakening. The main set of ocean currents that carry immense amounts of water from tropical to northern seas would be slowing down due to the impact of climate change. The latest report by United Nations experts (the IPCC) published this year came to the same conclusion.

The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is the main current system of the Atlantic Ocean. It is responsible for transporting masses of warm water from the tropics to the poles near the surface and directing cold water to equatorial latitudes in the depths of the ocean. It is a very important ocean current in the climate since it has a regulating function of temperatures. Therefore, any change or modification in the behavior of this current entails other changes in the climate at a global level.

Although there are no confirmed causes, the authors identify greenhouse gas emissions as a possible factor. The use of fossil fuels and the delay in the implementation of renewables leads the planet to collapse that seems increasingly sudden.

Canary Islands

In this sense in the Canary archipelago, located in a privileged place of the AMOC process, we have a coastal current of very cold waters in the Atlantic Ocean. It appears as if it is trapped between the northwest coast of Africa and the southern branch of the Gulf Stream or North Atlantic. They do not constitute the same current due to the different temperature of their waters, coinciding the strip of clouds near the Canary Islands with the southern branch (return) of the Gulf, with warmer waters.

But in recent times the abnormal state of the Atlantic only raises the temperature of the sea. It is feared that by September the seawater situation could be well above average.

Susanne Ditlevsen: "The decline of this flow system could alter the climate of Western Europe to resemble that of Alaska"

The AMOC is a subsystem capable of changing to an irreversible state, making it one of the most important inflection elements in the Earth's climate. Its possible collapse is of great concern, as it would have serious repercussions on the North Atlantic ecosystem and, by extension, on the entire planet.

The decline of this flow system "could alter the climate of Western Europe to resemble that of Alaska," Susanne Ditlevsen, from the Danish university and co-author of the study, tells SINC. "The heat transported northward by the AMOC will stay in the tropics, warming them even more. The greater temperature difference between the subtropics and mid-latitudes will increase the strength of the current and could intensify storms."

The results of the study showed early warning signs of a critical transition of the AMOC and suggest that it could be shut down as early as 2025 and no later than 2095.

This type of abrupt climate change was last experienced during the Dansgaard-Oeschger Events in the last glacial period, caused by the collapse and restoration of the AMOC. This caused fluctuations in the average temperature of the northern hemisphere of 10-15ºC in a decade, much greater than the current changes of 1.5 degrees in a century.

"The problem is that we haven't seen a collapse of the AMOC in the last 12,000 years," Ditlevsen said. "The declines and restarts observed in the paleoclimate record of the last glacial period were extremely abrupt," he adds.

The strength of this flow system has only been continuously monitored since 2004 and these observations have shown that it is weakening. However, longer records are needed to assess magnitude.

link to article for map
Living my dream
2 users say Thank You to TamaraEnLaPlaya for this post
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As mariners we were reporting that the gulf stream was moving north back in the 70s but were poo hooed by the uk met office.
Early 70s we used to head out from south of Newfoundland then steam north easterly until the sea temp went up ( using the engine cooling intake temperatures ) once we found the "warmer water" we adjusted course direct for the english channel approaches.
We could gain half to 1Knot which on a normal speed of 14knots was a lot plus of course saved fuel.
By the 80s the diversion north to find the remnants of the gulf stream was too large to make it worthwhile.
Mid 80s the met office asked us to report daily seawater temps!!!
Now they have satellites and gps and I am retired.
4 users say Thank You to DavidP for this post
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If Northern Europe would suffer a big freeze from this, what would be the outcome for the Canaries? No more rain for the wetter islands like Gran Canaria and Tenerife? Desperately hot Weather the same as African continent on the same landmass? Or something else?
1 user says Thank You to Ducks for this post
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