GBP/EUR - Exchange rate alerts

[Jason W]

Arguably a 6,000 euros bet, working on current assumption of 60% chance of a conservative majority and possibility of a 4 cent or more to the £ drop on anything but a conservative majority.
Not saying which camp i am in but how many would place that bet today given the election predictions of 2017.

[Johnrgby]

I don't put a lot of value into currency predictions...

Everyone should live by this rule. It's most of the time just a guessing game.

Off subject, I know but this made me laugh this morning, it reminded me of back in the mid-seventies I was working on sales and expenditure budgets for a new superstore in S Wales, and during a coffee break I said " I hope we all realise that all budgets are someone's  best guess" I genuinely  thought the Operations Director was going to have a heart attack

[Jason W]

Getting close Sam to your 1.17, Revolut woke me up today, had forgotten I had set one, not auto exchange just a message alert which pinged on my phone.

Excellent feature (the message) as well as auto exchange. I'm still patiently waiting for the pound to hit the 1.17. Yesterday was about 1.167 - pretty close.    

I missed an alert yesterday, seems briefly went to 1.17 at 16.36   so have set auto exchange. Revolut currently giving £6 each if you refer a friend, not sure if that applies to all current users or not.

[Spitfire58]

Mine auto exchanged when it hit 1.17 yesterday so all good, only changed a couple of hundred. More just to see it all worked properly 😁😁

[Jason W]

Lots of people auto trade at trigger points so millions if not billions from large institutions at play so 1.17 may have existed for seconds only. Watching currency beats looking out of my office window at the rain.

[Jason W]

Broken 1.17 just now, see if it stays above this level this time. Shame I left my phone at home so hoping auto exchange has worked.

[Jason W]

... 4 cent to the £ increase would amount to £6k on a transaction of £150k. Speculation, yes but not to be sniffed at for the sake of waiting 4 or 5 wks. IMHO 👍👍

Let's say £150K would get you an extra 6,000 if the rate is 1.20 in Dec - 180,000 instead of 174,000 - exchange at 1.16. This is way too risky in my book.


I would rather make some money on the way up.

Exchange £40K once it'll hit 1.17 (extra 400) ---- 46,800
Exchange £40K once it'll hit 1.18 (extra 800) ---- 47,200
Exchange £40K once it'll hit 1.19 (extra 1,200) -- 47,600
Exchange £30K once it'll hit 1.20 (extra 1,200) -- 36,000

All in all 177,600 instead of 174,000 - exchange at 1.16.
Making extra 3.600 without putting all your eggs in one basket. I know, this will get you 2,400 less but that's what you're paying for the reduced risk.

What if something goes terribly wrong and the exchange rate will drop down, right the next day after the elections? Let's say down to 1.12 - looking back, we had this exchange rate last month, 1.20 on the other hand, back in 2016/2017.

If you'll exchange the whole sum at 1.12 you'll get 6,000 euros less (168,000 in total). if you'll follow my example you'll still gain 1,200 (175,200 in total).

Based on your post, have exchanged 85% ready for my property purchase at average of just over 1.171 so more than happy, took around twenty trades over 3 weeks or so, the markets are very twitchy at the moment.

[Spitfire58]

At the moment:

[attachment=4468]

[Jason W]

Thanks - seems i am not too good at predicting currency rate movements 

[Spitfire58]

Picked up a 1.204 exchange rate last night before it dropped back to 1.195 this morning. Hopefully now that the unmentionable “B” situation looks to be heading to a resolution we will see a bit more stability. Not before time !!! Taken three & a half years. Once this is resolved (fingers crossed) it may also lead to increased tourism 😀😀