TL;DR
If Corridor = Good Winter Season
If No Corridor = More Pain
The islands will be hurt, and some are still hurting significantly.
From what I have experienced here, working weekly with small businesses:
Businesses that are solely serving the tourism industry have been hit so hard. Many have chosen not to open back up YET - if they do, they will have to give up all the tax reliefs and start paying all employees again. At this moment in time, there are simply not enough customers to cover expenses.
Other "Mom and pop" style tourism businesses (retreats, getaways, etc) simple don't have any customers. Peak season is from
October to Feb, and if they don't get customers in the 2020/2021 season, they will close up shop.
About 20-25% of businesses that started in 2019 closed down completely with no intention of reopening.
Businesses that target mostly locals have seen customer numbers climb back to about 85% of previous, but most are spending about 30% less than before.
Large businesses that serve customers in the tourism sector are hovering in between these numbers. They have local customers, and local businesses, but many local businesses are cutting back expenses.
For a couple of months (
July + Aug) many people were giving up their rentals, choosing to either rent cheaper, or leave the islands.
October has seen an increase of rented properties.
AirBnB properties are suffering massively, with many owners choosing to long let so they at least have an income to cover bills/debts.
What I have seen that gives me confidence
The Canary government has been hard at work to prepare for whatever happens. I was laughing a month ago when I heard that they had taken out some odd one of a kind insurance policy against
COVID.
Now I see how so many odd things they were doing could result in the Canary Islands having a one of a kind Tourism Corridor with anywhere in the world.
If the corridor does come into effect, I foresee that most airlines will do one of two things:
1. Have a
single flight weekly(or biweekly) from each major airport they serve (Condor would do Berlin, Frankfurt, Dörf of the Dussel, Munich etc.)
2. Have one or two central hubs that they fly from multiple times per week - with more local intra country routing of passengers.
This would allow them to "fill" significantly more of a plane, leading to fewer cancellations.
If you are in it for the long haul (living in Fuerte) then things will change, you might need to find a new favourite bar restaurant or shop. The economy will get worse, but its only accelerating the worldwide economical decline that started a few years ago. You're living on Fuerte, Improvise, Adapt, Overcome - just like how we all got used to the glorious wind here
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These are my own opinions and observations from working with many small businesses here, Familiarity with the financial markets and main EU economies, knowledge of the local rental market (car and home) and the airline industry (more specific to Germany).