Coronavirus in numbers

[Jason W]

Many countries are seeing the same pattern with exponential growth stopping in last few days. Watched a really interesting video that explained using logarithmic graphs. The straight line was beginning to curve as daily cases are broadly similar to the previous day but more important actual cases should soon start to equal daily  recoveries and then recoveries will start to exceed new cases. You can find the data on a country by country basis.

[Ducks]

We are now past the two-week point after lockdown which covers the incubation period, so if there wasn't a sharp decrease in cases, there'd be something very wrong! This is good, though; it buys time for those already being treated to recover which eases pressure on the health service, as well as allowing those who are asymptomatic/mild cases to pass through their infectious stage without transmitting the virus to others.

We will see what happens by the end of the month as active cases may reach zero, though what will be really interesting is what happens when lockdown ends. My best guess is that they may do a gradual return to normality, slowly opening up outdoor public facilities to exercise, then non-essential but important businesses (clothes shops, china shop, etc.), before moving to service businesses (restaurants, pubs), and finally schools and everything else. It's also possible that it will just be fully lifted overnight, but I think that's less likely (and less wise) as it could swamp the system again.

Regardless of the severity of it, we will almost certainly see another spike as soon as free movement returns, especially movement from overseas— while we have had quite a stingingly enforced lockdown here and on the mainland, other countries went into lockdown both later and more leniently, so people coming from those places are much higher risk for bringing the virus with them. 

We're not out of the woods yet, but it's fantastic to see at least one day without new cases being reported! Hopefully we will all get through this and be able to get on with "normal" life before everyone goes completely off their trolley from all the enforced quiet time!

[FVmouse]

You really believe this ?

[Cotillo_Tom]

I've been playing with the numbers (nerd alert) and have some good news. The daily increase of cases is slowing down. Yesterday down to 7% and today only 5%!


If you'll check the attached csv file you'll see there's (except the last two days) only one single digit in the % column (9%) a couple of weeks ago. There's also a few rows with a 0% but that was on the beginning when nobody realised how serious the situation will become.




UPDATE: added a pic of the csv.

Great work Sam (warning: nerd to nerd conversation follows):
Any chance you could do the same with the figures just for Fuerteventura?  I think that would be VERY revealing. 

Tom.

[Ducks]

You really believe this ?

No new cases reported doesn't guarantee that there are no new cases on the island, but it's still good news because it means there are no new cases severe enough to go looking for testing. If you assume that there are, say, 5 unreported cases for every reported case, when your report rate goes down to 1 every second day instead of every day, you're still looking at 5 new cases over that 48h period instead of 10. That's progress.

There is virtually no way that a virus with a 14-day incubation period would not be slowed by a 14-day isolation period. Again, it's not saying the disease is dead and all our problems are over, but it will relieve the system and slow infection. 

Say I picked it up right before the lockdown, but I'm asymptomatic. In lockdown, the only person I am going to infect is the person I live with (who was going to get it from me regardless). Because my interaction with others outside my household is limited, I'm not going to give it to anyone else. Because the one person I did infect is also on lockdown, they're not going to give it to anyone else, either. By the time the lockdown is over, we are both non-contagious and hopefully protected with anti-bodies and can't pick it up again, meaning we are not in danger, and pose no danger to anyone else. Without lockdown, we would both have been going out every day and infecting hundreds of people, each. 

Even if I did infect someone else (say the girl in Mercadona this morning— despite both wearing masks and efforts to maintain distance), the number of people she will come into contact with over the next two weeks is also much smaller than it would otherwise have been. Yes, I believe the lockdown works and that we should be seeing results now.

Many countries are fudging numbers (either by deliberate under-testing or by falsifying reports), and in many cases the honest numbers aren't even representative of the reality, but if we do not see a genuine big drop in the numbers over the next week, the only explanation would be that everything we know about the virus (incubation period, infectiousness, severity, etc.) is all wrong. I am sincerely hoping that is not the case.

[Ducks]

Here's a cute little comic from XKCD about the effect of social distancing on viruses:



Stay safe and enjoy your pasta, folks!

[FVmouse]

It’s very interesting to see how optimistic people are on this thread judging by the recommendations your posts have received. 

Talk of not being out of the woods quite yet and a gradual return to normality seems wildly optimistic to me. The Spanish government will not differentiate between different parts of Spain and I’m sure you are aware of the situation on neighbouring islands, the mainland and the wider world.

I would be absolutely delighted to be proved wrong and I wish I shared your optimism but I regard your implied timeline of Events as pure fantasy. Let’s all hope I am wrong and everyone else on this thread is right. But looking on the bright side often sets one up for disappointment....

One particular epidemiologist in the U.K. is trying to tell people that we have overreacted. I pray to God he is right. But others including the previously disbelieving moron POTUS are now calling this a plague with all the terrifying connotations....

The Secretary General of the UN has just called this the biggest threat since WW2. Large swathes of the global population have been confined to barracks. This simply does not gen with your premise that normality is within touching distance.

Hope you are right ....

[Ducks]

It’s very interesting to see how optimistic people are on this thread judging by the recommendations your posts have received. 

Talk of not being out of the woods quite yet and a gradual return to normality seems wildly optimistic to me. The Spanish government will not differentiate between different parts of Spain and I’m sure you are aware of the situation on neighbouring islands, the mainland and the wider world.

I would be absolutely delighted to be proved wrong and I wish I shared your optimism but I regard your implied timeline of events as pure fantasy. Let’s all hope I am wrong and everyone else on this thread is right. But looking on the bright side often sets one up for disappointment....

One particular epidemiologist in the U.K. is trying to tell people that we have overreacted. I pray to God he is right. But others including the previously disbelieving moron POTUS are now calling this a plague with all the terrifying connotations....

The Secretary General of the UN has just called this the biggest threat since WW2. Large swathes of the global population have been confined to barracks. This simply does not gen with your premise that normality is within touching distance.

Hope you are right ....

At no point have I or anyone else I've seen discussed a timeline for these Events. I have no idea when this will happen— I would be surprised if the lockdown ends on April 12th, and fully expect it to extend into early May at the very least. That's talking about the beginning of the easing of restrictions, which as I said, I expect to be a gradual process. When will full normality resume? I have no idea, potentially not until August/September. I also think there's a reasonable chance that a second round of lockdowns will be needed in Autumn/Winter/next Spring, as it's quite possible we'll see a second wave of infections when free (or free-ish) movement resumes. 

Again, "we are not out of the woods" is a positive spin on "we are really in it now". Which are are. I'm not saying we aren't. All I am saying is:

• the current lockdown will be helpful in terms of managing the spread of the virus (again: it quite literally has to, there is no possible way that it will not to some degree reduce the infection rate and spread speed)
  
• fewer cases at any one time will mean a lower mortality rate as there will a smaller strain/undersupply of beds, staff, and equipment
  
• slowing the spread allows for supplies of medical equipment (PPE, ventilators, etc.) to be replenished and stockpiled, and for staff to recover and return to work if they are themselves infected
  
• it also allows time for things like vaccines and anti-body testing to be explored while people are much, much safer from infection than they are during times of free movement
  
• we are already seeing a decrease in the acceleration of the spread (fewer new cases) as a result of the lockdown
  
• the isolation period allows those who are asymptomatic/mildly affected to get the disease out of their systems so they can't pass it to others while infected
  
• hopefully people will build immunity also during this time
  

None of that is optimism; it's all fact (barring the last one, though I really hope that is fact, too).

I'm not saying we won't still have new cases. We will— lots of healthcare workers, essential workers, and idiots who just won't follow the damn rules and isolate or take precautions. I'm not saying death figures won't increase. They will— they'll hardly decrease (that would be really worrying). But the speed of the increases should slow: first new cases, then new deaths. People have died, are dying, and will continue to die from this disease. That is not going to stop happening overnight. There will be enormous economic damage from this that I can't even begin to speculate on and which frightens me to think about. We will continue to be on movement restriction for some time. You're right: we will have to be subject to the same rules as the mainland, and things are worse there.

...But the spread is being managed almost everywhere, and eventually enough people will be infected and recovered that life can go back to normal, and humanity will go about picking up the pieces as we have after every war, plague, and other global tragedy that has affected us over the millennia.

I'm not putting a timeline on when, and certainly not a "touching distance" one, unless you think this time next year is touching distance. However, a lot fewer people are dying now than would have died if we'd done nothing about it, hopefully society can remain functional because of the measures we are taking, and I do believe we will return to normal eventually. To me, those are facts, and they are worth thinking about while we are going through the beginning of the worst of it.

[Spitfire58]

FV, I think the main thing in all of this IS to stay positive. Sensible but positive, we will see the end of this hopefully sooner than later.
Ducks, is it ok to share your cartoon. I found it quite amusing.

[Ducks]

FV, I think the main thing in all of this IS to stay positive. Sensible but positive, we will see the end of this hopefully sooner than later.
Ducks, is it ok to share your cartoon. I found it quite amusing.

I certainly didn't draw it, so share away! If you go to the website, you can probably find links for sharing it better. 

Would recommend the whole website, actually. Their comics are so good, and they've done quite a few COVID ones now. (Mouse over each one for a funny add-on joke. Today's is Watchmen-related, lol.)