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29-10-2021, 04:19 PM
Vicente Soler, geophysicist: "This volcano is special, it is he who has caught the trick for us"
NIUS interviews the expert, one of the most educational voices to understand a volcano that "never ceases to amaze"
The mantle of the earth is the great unknown, "we volcanologists listen to the planet and little else"
Seismicity, tremor, sulfur dioxide and deformation of the terrain, the indicators that will advance the end of the eruption
Vicente Soler does not lose count of the days that the La Palma volcano has been erupting. "38 -responds to NIUS- and adding" because the end in Cumbre Vieja does not seem close. "On the contrary," he says.
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His is one of the most accredited and already iconic voices of this volcanic crisis. Vicente Soler Javaloyes (Jacarilla, Alicante, 1954) is the representative of the CSIC, the Higher Council for Scientific Research in Pevolca, the Volcanic Emergency Plan of the Canary Islands. There he analyzes daily the indicators of a volcano that is "special" and never ceases to amaze. After all this time, not only has he not gotten the hang of it anymore, but "he got us," he says.
The geophysicist reviews with NIUS all the important questions to understand what is happening and what may happen in the future on the island of La Palma. He does it with that voice and didactic character that characterizes him. Vicente Soler, "the Fernando Simón of the volcano", they compare him in networks. "What if I have noticed the fame? - He repeats incredulously - what I have noticed is that now, at the gas stations, they want to take selfies with me." A weight that does not detract from the desire to continue at the foot of the volcano, "feeling" his roar and attending to the media to answer the great question, the one that is repeated over and over again.
He asks: Señor Soler, when is all this going to end?
Answer: At the moment, no. Almost the opposite. Indicators of the eruption are still active and strong. On Tuesday, seismicity had decreased, but sulfur dioxide (SO2) remains very high, and ground deformation and tremor persist.
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P: This, tremor, is a concept that is repeated, what exactly is it?
A: The tremor is a kind of vibration produced by the magma in the final ascent. Magma has a density similar to cement, only it is molten, and raising that mass from three kilometers deep to the surface is what produces the tremor.
Q: And what does it mean that there is still a very high level of sulfur dioxide?
A: A large amount of SO2 means that the amount of magma closest to the surface is important. This gas comes from the degassing of the shallower, more superficial magma, so it shows that the feed dam still has a huge amount of material to emit.
Q: So when can the end be said to be near?
A: When the levels of sulfur dioxide show a clear tendency to decrease, the deformation of the terrain also begins a marked trend of deflation (right now the area is elevated up to 20 centimeters), and the seismicity tends to gradually disappear. The tremor will also fade, but that is already the very, very final stages. Geophysics, which measures earthquakes and tremor, was very good at anticipating the onset, since it began on September 11, eight days earlier, while geochemistry, which measures SO2 levels, seems to be very good at anticipating the end.
What counts, after all, are trends. That the seismicity varies momentarily is not indicative, but it would be if the seismicity shows a clear tendency to decrease in successive days. The same happens with the SO2 rate or the deformations. It is the trends that count, not the point value of a day.
Q: What would be the worst eruptive scenario for you?
A: For everyone, the worst case scenario scientifically and socially would be that a new volcano opens on the other side of the island, on the other side.
"For me the break on the 27th was one of the most worrying moments
Q: How likely is that to happen?
A: It is true that very, very few as long as the process continues in the current parameters. Although the history of Events does not mean that new things cannot appear, but so far in the Canary Islands new distant mouths have been opened when there is a momentary cessation of activity. On the 27th, for example, there was a seven-hour break. For me that moment was one of the most worrying because the activity could resume there, as it happened, or in another place. In the 1949 eruption, this happened several times and there were separate mouths kilometers apart, giving rise to two streams, one a kilometer south of the current one and another on the eastern slope that isolated the south of the island.
This is the worst-case scenario, although today it is highly unlikely. In any case, we must be attentive to the geophysical and especially geochemical observables every minute to see that the magnitude of this seismicity does not reach values that could recommend the rupture of the base of the lithosphere and the injection of a new dike. If the cessation of activity is sudden it is worrying, if it is progressive it will be normal.
Q: Would it pose a danger to the population?
A: Magma cannot be expected to resume activity in another part of the island without forewarning. The magma needs to open a path and in that path prior to the eruption it usually produces a deformation, even if it is small, and an associated seismicity. There are early warning mechanisms that are still active, the safety of the inhabitants of La Palma is not in danger. The only thing that is happening with practically no prior warning is that new lava outlets or outlets are opening, but always in the eruptive environment.
Q: Given the bad, what would be the best scenario?
A: The important thing for everyone is that the activity remains in the environment, which is being so, and that the successive variations and disturbances of the lava flow channel favor the flow of lava through existing streams, without invading new areas. Ideally, they should reach the sea where the fajana is already to prevent it from widening. The cone in its construction and destruction, which is constant because it is destabilized, grows so high that it falls. He collapses by himself or with any help, with any explosion or any thrust of magma.
Q: Stops, new mouths appear, why does the volcano behave like this?
A: If compared to a wheel, it is not that the volcano punctures and has to deflate until all the magma is expelled. The idea, or at least what I always shuffle and until now it gives me results consistent with geophysical observables, is that moderate-sized pockets of magma rise from the interior of the earth, which are the ones that push and those that produce these swings. in the eruption. The eruption is not constant. On the 27th, between the completion of the first magmatic pocket and the arrival of the next, the activity stopped for hours. If it were a single, gigantic magma chamber, it would be difficult to understand the stops or changes in the pace of activity. The depth seismicity would be related to the arrival of one of these magma pockets that days later produce an increase in the eruptive activity. It is a dynamic process, which is why there are so many variations.
Q: What is surprising you the most about this volcano?
A: Many things surprise me. The speed with which the eruption was unleashed, the large amount of material expelled, the stoppage on the 27th or the supersonic explosions that drew the shock wave in the gas column. These for me were something unknown in this environment of Canarian volcanism. I was also surprised by the extremely high emission rate of sulfur dioxide.
A much more complete observation is being made here than that of El Hierro in 2011. In fact, this is the first technologically modern eruption in the Canary archipelago. We can combine macroscopic observation of the terrain, direct observation, with geophysical observables that are constantly recorded.
Q: So for you this volcano is special
A: Yes, yes, look, I have one of the few positions in the CSIC of volcanology. I am a geophysicist. I have been indirectly studying the interior of the planet since the year 82 and I have witnessed other eruptions such as Etna, but for me this is a special volcano because it has an enormous volume and there is a great dynamic of variability in the eruptive cone that, for Unfortunately, it is affecting the flow path.
In other eruptions such as Teneguía it was easier. This eruption is already the one that has occupied the largest area of land of all the historic ones on the island of La Palma. It has ended with a series that started in 1585, in which the duration of each volcano was shorter than the previous one.
Q: You explain almost daily, on the ground, the ups and downs of the volcano
A: Well, I try to give some reference that may be useful and that explains a detail or an idea.
Q: Are you going to keep doing it, are you going to stay until the end?
A: I arrived on the 20th and yes, in principle, yes. Until the eruption ends, I will continue here with my day to day, participating in the mornings in the Pevolca, the Canary Islands Volcanic Emergency Plan, and going in the afternoons to observe the volcano, because no matter how much there are drones, no matter how much there are cameras, geophysical and geochemical data, the volcano needs one to see it to have a global perception of the phenomenon. Observation of the phenomenon on the ground produces important additional information.
Q: And do you understand, have you already got the hang of the volcano?
A: This volcano is special. He is the one who has gotten the hang of us. When you see a new mouth open or a new perfect cone is formed and collapses after three days. Those things help you understand that the cone as a whole is almost more of a mountain of incandescent sand than a mountain of rock. They are perceptions that later help to explain things, in the end they are feelings. The noise of the volcano can be recorded, but I assure you that it is better to hear it, because in addition to hearing it, it is felt. They are things that as far as possible, if possible, it is better to live them.
This volcano is also special for that reason, being a Strombolian eruption it is possible to observe it closely. It is not as dangerous as others. It is true that we know more about outer space than the interior of our planet, all the evidence we have of the earth is indirect, all are indirect calculations, hence the difficulty. A difficulty that is not justified, but let's say it does make the inaccurate of our forecasts relative compared to the precision that a geologist can express when analyzing a rock sample under the electron microscope. We auscultate the planet and little else.
Q: Well, you have already become more famous, even, than the bullfighter Vicente Soler
A: I live here isolated in an apartment, working, and I don't consider myself famous at all. What I have noticed (he laughs) is that at some gas stations people ask me for a selfie, but little else, that's my perception of fame.
https://www.niusdiario.es/sociedad/medio...OhPz02BEaY
NIUS interviews the expert, one of the most educational voices to understand a volcano that "never ceases to amaze"
The mantle of the earth is the great unknown, "we volcanologists listen to the planet and little else"
Seismicity, tremor, sulfur dioxide and deformation of the terrain, the indicators that will advance the end of the eruption
Vicente Soler does not lose count of the days that the La Palma volcano has been erupting. "38 -responds to NIUS- and adding" because the end in Cumbre Vieja does not seem close. "On the contrary," he says.
ADVERTISING
His is one of the most accredited and already iconic voices of this volcanic crisis. Vicente Soler Javaloyes (Jacarilla, Alicante, 1954) is the representative of the CSIC, the Higher Council for Scientific Research in Pevolca, the Volcanic Emergency Plan of the Canary Islands. There he analyzes daily the indicators of a volcano that is "special" and never ceases to amaze. After all this time, not only has he not gotten the hang of it anymore, but "he got us," he says.
The geophysicist reviews with NIUS all the important questions to understand what is happening and what may happen in the future on the island of La Palma. He does it with that voice and didactic character that characterizes him. Vicente Soler, "the Fernando Simón of the volcano", they compare him in networks. "What if I have noticed the fame? - He repeats incredulously - what I have noticed is that now, at the gas stations, they want to take selfies with me." A weight that does not detract from the desire to continue at the foot of the volcano, "feeling" his roar and attending to the media to answer the great question, the one that is repeated over and over again.
He asks: Señor Soler, when is all this going to end?
Answer: At the moment, no. Almost the opposite. Indicators of the eruption are still active and strong. On Tuesday, seismicity had decreased, but sulfur dioxide (SO2) remains very high, and ground deformation and tremor persist.
ADVERTISING
P: This, tremor, is a concept that is repeated, what exactly is it?
A: The tremor is a kind of vibration produced by the magma in the final ascent. Magma has a density similar to cement, only it is molten, and raising that mass from three kilometers deep to the surface is what produces the tremor.
Q: And what does it mean that there is still a very high level of sulfur dioxide?
A: A large amount of SO2 means that the amount of magma closest to the surface is important. This gas comes from the degassing of the shallower, more superficial magma, so it shows that the feed dam still has a huge amount of material to emit.
Q: So when can the end be said to be near?
A: When the levels of sulfur dioxide show a clear tendency to decrease, the deformation of the terrain also begins a marked trend of deflation (right now the area is elevated up to 20 centimeters), and the seismicity tends to gradually disappear. The tremor will also fade, but that is already the very, very final stages. Geophysics, which measures earthquakes and tremor, was very good at anticipating the onset, since it began on September 11, eight days earlier, while geochemistry, which measures SO2 levels, seems to be very good at anticipating the end.
What counts, after all, are trends. That the seismicity varies momentarily is not indicative, but it would be if the seismicity shows a clear tendency to decrease in successive days. The same happens with the SO2 rate or the deformations. It is the trends that count, not the point value of a day.
Q: What would be the worst eruptive scenario for you?
A: For everyone, the worst case scenario scientifically and socially would be that a new volcano opens on the other side of the island, on the other side.
"For me the break on the 27th was one of the most worrying moments
Q: How likely is that to happen?
A: It is true that very, very few as long as the process continues in the current parameters. Although the history of Events does not mean that new things cannot appear, but so far in the Canary Islands new distant mouths have been opened when there is a momentary cessation of activity. On the 27th, for example, there was a seven-hour break. For me that moment was one of the most worrying because the activity could resume there, as it happened, or in another place. In the 1949 eruption, this happened several times and there were separate mouths kilometers apart, giving rise to two streams, one a kilometer south of the current one and another on the eastern slope that isolated the south of the island.
This is the worst-case scenario, although today it is highly unlikely. In any case, we must be attentive to the geophysical and especially geochemical observables every minute to see that the magnitude of this seismicity does not reach values that could recommend the rupture of the base of the lithosphere and the injection of a new dike. If the cessation of activity is sudden it is worrying, if it is progressive it will be normal.
Q: Would it pose a danger to the population?
A: Magma cannot be expected to resume activity in another part of the island without forewarning. The magma needs to open a path and in that path prior to the eruption it usually produces a deformation, even if it is small, and an associated seismicity. There are early warning mechanisms that are still active, the safety of the inhabitants of La Palma is not in danger. The only thing that is happening with practically no prior warning is that new lava outlets or outlets are opening, but always in the eruptive environment.
Q: Given the bad, what would be the best scenario?
A: The important thing for everyone is that the activity remains in the environment, which is being so, and that the successive variations and disturbances of the lava flow channel favor the flow of lava through existing streams, without invading new areas. Ideally, they should reach the sea where the fajana is already to prevent it from widening. The cone in its construction and destruction, which is constant because it is destabilized, grows so high that it falls. He collapses by himself or with any help, with any explosion or any thrust of magma.
Q: Stops, new mouths appear, why does the volcano behave like this?
A: If compared to a wheel, it is not that the volcano punctures and has to deflate until all the magma is expelled. The idea, or at least what I always shuffle and until now it gives me results consistent with geophysical observables, is that moderate-sized pockets of magma rise from the interior of the earth, which are the ones that push and those that produce these swings. in the eruption. The eruption is not constant. On the 27th, between the completion of the first magmatic pocket and the arrival of the next, the activity stopped for hours. If it were a single, gigantic magma chamber, it would be difficult to understand the stops or changes in the pace of activity. The depth seismicity would be related to the arrival of one of these magma pockets that days later produce an increase in the eruptive activity. It is a dynamic process, which is why there are so many variations.
Q: What is surprising you the most about this volcano?
A: Many things surprise me. The speed with which the eruption was unleashed, the large amount of material expelled, the stoppage on the 27th or the supersonic explosions that drew the shock wave in the gas column. These for me were something unknown in this environment of Canarian volcanism. I was also surprised by the extremely high emission rate of sulfur dioxide.
A much more complete observation is being made here than that of El Hierro in 2011. In fact, this is the first technologically modern eruption in the Canary archipelago. We can combine macroscopic observation of the terrain, direct observation, with geophysical observables that are constantly recorded.
Q: So for you this volcano is special
A: Yes, yes, look, I have one of the few positions in the CSIC of volcanology. I am a geophysicist. I have been indirectly studying the interior of the planet since the year 82 and I have witnessed other eruptions such as Etna, but for me this is a special volcano because it has an enormous volume and there is a great dynamic of variability in the eruptive cone that, for Unfortunately, it is affecting the flow path.
In other eruptions such as Teneguía it was easier. This eruption is already the one that has occupied the largest area of land of all the historic ones on the island of La Palma. It has ended with a series that started in 1585, in which the duration of each volcano was shorter than the previous one.
Q: You explain almost daily, on the ground, the ups and downs of the volcano
A: Well, I try to give some reference that may be useful and that explains a detail or an idea.
Q: Are you going to keep doing it, are you going to stay until the end?
A: I arrived on the 20th and yes, in principle, yes. Until the eruption ends, I will continue here with my day to day, participating in the mornings in the Pevolca, the Canary Islands Volcanic Emergency Plan, and going in the afternoons to observe the volcano, because no matter how much there are drones, no matter how much there are cameras, geophysical and geochemical data, the volcano needs one to see it to have a global perception of the phenomenon. Observation of the phenomenon on the ground produces important additional information.
Q: And do you understand, have you already got the hang of the volcano?
A: This volcano is special. He is the one who has gotten the hang of us. When you see a new mouth open or a new perfect cone is formed and collapses after three days. Those things help you understand that the cone as a whole is almost more of a mountain of incandescent sand than a mountain of rock. They are perceptions that later help to explain things, in the end they are feelings. The noise of the volcano can be recorded, but I assure you that it is better to hear it, because in addition to hearing it, it is felt. They are things that as far as possible, if possible, it is better to live them.
This volcano is also special for that reason, being a Strombolian eruption it is possible to observe it closely. It is not as dangerous as others. It is true that we know more about outer space than the interior of our planet, all the evidence we have of the earth is indirect, all are indirect calculations, hence the difficulty. A difficulty that is not justified, but let's say it does make the inaccurate of our forecasts relative compared to the precision that a geologist can express when analyzing a rock sample under the electron microscope. We auscultate the planet and little else.
Q: Well, you have already become more famous, even, than the bullfighter Vicente Soler
A: I live here isolated in an apartment, working, and I don't consider myself famous at all. What I have noticed (he laughs) is that at some gas stations people ask me for a selfie, but little else, that's my perception of fame.
https://www.niusdiario.es/sociedad/medio...OhPz02BEaY
