Coronavirus in numbers - Nations

[milestone11]

Whilst still a figure that I find horrendous to read, I'm nevertheless happier to report a drop in the number of Spain's infections as reported to the WHO today. There is a reduction from yesterday of some 1594 from yesterday's total of 5252 giving us 3658 infected in the previous 24 hour period. This brings the percentage back into the 2% bracket which we have not seen for four days. Italy remain in the 2% and the UK remain at 5%.
As always, the full spreadsheets can be found here.




It's a week since I posted the daily growth chart. Thought I'd show it again today as a little encouragement of the picture. The earliest infected European countries are certainly showing a continued downward trend. The UK and USA not so much. The UK is behind us by days in double figures and the USA... Better leave that unsaid I think.

[milestone11]

I have no idea how accurate the figure below is. It's sad to say but I'm becoming more cynical by the day with any country's reported figures.

April 20 (GMT)

• 1536 new cases and 399 new deaths in Spain [source]
  

[milestone11]

My apologies. Forgive the late addition for April 20th figures, I'd retired before figures were updated.
Spain up today 560 from yesterday's figure of 3658 to 4218. Still a colossal amount of daily infections. Spain is consistently the 3rd highest global daily rise.

[milestone11]

Up 48 from yesterday's miserable figure to an even more miserable 4266 from 4218. it's so disheartening.
 Nothing is changing very quickly at all, Spain is almost double Italy's figure. Whilst we are not experiencing the exponential growth that we had in the early days, the continuing perpetual growth of circa 4000-4500 is more than a little worrying. I just don't see any logical reasoning to this, there has to be something.
There is no reporting of testing figures, that's an unknown quantity. Is the virus so ubiquitous within the country that the value of infections do not change because the testing values have a consistent daily metric? We seem to be going nowhere.
I am disillusioned with the government's approach to this crisis. I'm tired of listening to clowns with little or no credibility. Their answer? Relax the restrictions.


As always, full spreadsheets can be found here.



Tomorrow brings Efecto Martes meaning that any reported figure won't be worth the paper that it's written on.

[milestone11]

Possibly all the people with mild symptoms who wouldn't get tested a few weeks ago, are getting  tested now, pushing the numbers up  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Looking at Spanish numbers I feel really positive, although still too early to relax the lockdown IMHO.

I'm generally considered to be the eternal optimist Sam. I'm struggling.

[milestone11]

Possibly all the people with mild symptoms who wouldn't get tested a few weeks ago, are getting  tested now, pushing the numbers up  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Looking at Spanish numbers I feel really positive, although still too early to relax the lockdown IMHO.

I'm generally considered to be the eternal optimist Sam. I'm struggling.

Why? The numbers are dropping down. Not as fast as we would like them to but going the right direction. Look at the chart of daily growth in Spain. Not just the last few red dots in the bottom right corner. Zoom out and look at the whole chart. We are winning here, we just need a little bit more time. The virus was really scary last month, right now it's dying.

Soon enough there will be beaches and streets, full of noisy adults and their kids and we all will be complaining about them again.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Therein lies my problem Sam. I study it too carefully. +4000, day after day, it's depressing. Yes, of course, it's 2% of the total whereas the same +4000 represented 5% only two short weeks ago. There is no doubt that exponential growth has slowed but the daily +4000 is horrifying.


Today's update not completed yet and I need my beauty sleep.

[Grampiangranny]

To put this into context, the UK has very recently approached the number of deaths per week last recorded in the UK in early 2000.

Then it was called 'a bad flu outbreak'. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

[windermeregolfer]

Possibly all the people with mild symptoms who wouldn't get tested a few weeks ago, are getting  tested now, pushing the numbers up  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Looking at Spanish numbers I feel really positive, although still too early to relax the lockdown IMHO.

I'm generally considered to be the eternal optimist Sam. I'm struggling.

Why? The numbers are dropping down. Not as fast as we would like them to but going the right direction. Look at the chart of daily growth in Spain. Not just the last few red dots in the bottom right corner. Zoom out and look at the whole chart. We are winning here, we just need a little bit more time. The virus was really scary last month, right now it's dying.

Soon enough there will be beaches and streets, full of noisy adults and their kids and we all will be complaining about them again.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Therein lies my problem Sam. I study it too carefully. +4000, day after day, it's depressing. Yes, of course, it's 2% of the total whereas the same +4000 represented 5% only two short weeks ago. There is no doubt that exponential growth has slowed but the daily +4000 is horrifying.


Today's update not completed yet and I need my beauty sleep.

I don't watch Spanish TV so not sure if the Spanish government give a daily briefing the same as the UK, I only saw the bits on the news at 10pm last night but at yesterdays UK briefing the Chief Medical guy Prof Whitty appeared to paint a very honest but gloomy picture that we are in this for the long haul and there could be another 12 months of the social distancing until a vaccine is develop, tested and available.  Not the greatest news.

[Jason W]

To put this into context, the UK has very recently approached the number of deaths per week last recorded in the UK in early 2000.

Then it was called 'a bad flu outbreak'. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

I 100% agree with your comments, time will tell the true story. I study the details not the headlines. Headlines sell newspapers and advertising. Last night on Tv scientists were questioning each other with the experts clearly in different camps on this. The Uk govt made a u turn overnight on the back of potentially flawed Imperial College modelling, the same College that told us 50% of the population may already have contracted the virus. Many people will die not from the virus but because of measures taken by govts. 
Only my opinion but I still maintain those at risk should have been protected early on and should be protected and let the rest of us make our own minds up.

[milestone11]

A double update tonight. My pal fell asleep revisiting Japan 1994, oddly, I'd done the same but in Bahrain 2014. I'll be at Silverstone tomorrow where the young man from Stevenage sets the tone for the rest of his first Mercedes WC.  

Spain's figures for Wednesday were a little below the previous day's figure, down 298 to 3968 from 4266. Sadly, Thursday brought an increase of 243, taking us once again over that 4000 mark to 4211. The positive from that though is that Spain remains firmly entrenched within the 2% growth range

Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands and now, thankfullly, the UK are also showing a developing downward trend in growth rates. Long may that be the case. It will be a very different world when this is all over.

As always, anyone caring to further analyse the spreadsheets will find them here.