Coronavirus in numbers - Nations

[Ducks]

We are never going to know the true figures. FullFacts (a facts checking site) have reported that between March 28 and April 24, 37,471 'excess deaths above the average' (for time of year?) were reported.

I think long-term, the best measure will be the end-of-year death reports for all countries compared with their recent averages. Considering the extremely high percentage of COVID deaths being people who had preexisting conditions, I think the majority of the deaths will ultimately be from people who may well have died within the next 12 months anyway: ie, you die from COVID in April instead of from lung cancer in July. Obviously at a personal level it is much more distressing because your family cannot visit, it happens suddenly, and the normal grief and burial processes are disrupted, but on a statistical level they are much the same. 

The additional deaths (healthy people who would not otherwise have died in the next 12 months) may well be balanced out by the fact that countries in lockdown will have fewer fatalities from things like industrial and automotive accidents, non-COVID medical deaths (fewer non-emergency procedures mean fewer people dying on the table/from infection/etc) and even from crime. There will, of course, be additional deaths later, largely from cancer and other diseases that were not discovered and treated in time because of lockdowns, and deaths related to mental health due to isolation and decrease of services. 

Broadly speaking, I think if you look at a 24mo period from Jan 2020 to Dec 2021, more people than average will die, but not by enormous amounts.

[Johnrgby]

We are never going to know the true figures. FullFacts (a facts checking site) have reported that between March 28 and April 24, 37,471 'excess deaths above the average' (for time of year?) were reported.

Can someone tell me what that figure is in our language, I have a Maths degree, but cannot get my head around the way the Spanish express numbers is that  two million four hundred and thirty-seven thousand and four hundred and seventy one 2,437,471

[TrickyFox]

We are never going to know the true figures. FullFacts (a facts checking site) have reported that between March 28 and April 24, 37,471 'excess deaths above the average' (for time of year?) were reported.

Can someone tell me what that figure is in our language, I have a Maths degree, but cannot get my head around the way the Spanish express numbers is that  two million four hundred and thirty-seven thousand and four hundred and seventy one 2,437,471

John, between March 28th and April 24th, 37, 471 'excess death' were recorded in the UK - sorry should have made that clearer.

[Johnrgby]

We are never going to know the true figures. FullFacts (a facts checking site) have reported that between March 28 and April 24, 37,471 'excess deaths above the average' (for time of year?) were reported.

Can someone tell me what that figure is in our language, I have a Maths degree, but cannot get my head around the way the Spanish express numbers is that  two million four hundred and thirty-seven thousand and four hundred and seventy one 2,437,471

John, between March 28th and April 24th, 37, 471 'excess death' were recorded in the UK - sorry should have made that clearer.

No problem, now I have looked at it again it is glaringly obvious

[milestone11]

My apologies, I've been somewhat remiss in updating these charts recently. The Spanish government's flagrant dishonesty since the 26th April has left me utterly disillusioned to the point that I question the legitimacy of the reported figures.

[milestone11]

I'm sure that everyone, including me, can do without the daily depression inducing content which this thread has typically provided. Going into stage 2, as from this weekend, hopefully, there is better and happier news on the horizon. As Roy Orbison once sang, "Looking forward to happier times"

[milestone11]

Yesterday saw the highest number, globally, of reported new cases since the start of this pandemic. 164,000.

[milestone11]

And the global record is shattered again with 183,000 cases reported on Saturday.

Germany's reproduction rate has jumped to 2.88, up from 1.79 on Friday, according to the German health authority, numbers that exceed the level needed to contain the disease over the longer term. What now? There is no evidence whatsoever of a flattening curve globally.

[Jason W]

The so called R rate is a headline number that needs to be understood - you have 10 cases today and 30 tomorrow the R rate is 2.
Contrast that with 10,000 cases today and 19,000 cases tomorrow and the R is below the magic 1, what is worse ?

[milestone11]

The so called R rate is a headline number that needs to be understood - you have 10 cases today and 30 tomorrow the R rate is 2.
Contrast that with 10,000 cases today and 19,000 cases tomorrow and the R is below the magic 1, what is worse ?

Your understanding of the R number? The R number has no bearing on today's or tomorrow's figures. You're trying to compare apples with oranges.