Coronavirus in numbers - Nations

[Spitfire58]

The so called R rate is a headline number that needs to be understood - you have 10 cases today and 30 tomorrow the R rate is 2.
Contrast that with 10,000 cases today and 19,000 cases tomorrow and the R is below the magic 1, what is worse ?

Your understanding of the R number? The R number has no bearing on today's or tomorrow's figures. You're trying to compare apples with oranges.

I would say yes & no to that. It doesn’t have a direct bearing on tomorrow’s figures but the “trend” has to be going in the right direction. If the R trend is upwards then over the next couple of wks the infected numbers will also pick up so it is longer term than tomorrow’s figures but it is Important that it is depressed as much as possible. IMO

[Jason W]

My point is the media try to frighten people with the R number, as numbers fall to a low level the R number can jump but means nothing unless it is a longer term trend. Take Fuerteventura as an example with the migrant boats. Likewise Anglesey and the meat processing outbreak. The experts admit they can’t measure it accurately and only ever give a range of numbers.

[milestone11]

The R (Reproduction) number is exponential growth. It is assessed with acquired data of current growth. The German figure of 2.88 means that it is anticipated that 100 people are likely to infect a further 288. Using an R rate of 3.00 to simplify an illustration, and starting at 1 rather than 100, the growth rate would look like this,

An R of 3
1-3-9-27-81-243-729-2187 etc

An R of 1
1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

An R of 2
1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128

The illustration shows that an R of under 1 means that infection would in fact die out.

[Jason W]

Thank you for your illustration, however the R number is more important the greater the number of current cases - a high R number in a small number of total cases is easier to control by local lock downs whereas a low R number in a high number of total current cases is more difficult to control. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52632369

The headline in the telegraph sums it up nicely

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06...y-measure/

[milestone11]

Thank you for your illustration, however the R number is more important the greater the number of current cases - a high R number in a small number of total cases is easier to control by local lock downs whereas a low R number in a high number of total current cases is more difficult to control. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52632369

The headline in the telegraph sums it up nicely

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06...y-measure/

With that statement, we're in agreement. However, I would not hold truck with very much Ross Clark says. The R number is not something that is being plucked out of the sky, scientists calculate the R based upon short/medium term historical data that has been collated over previous weeks.

The ideal situation is to maintain an R of, preferably below, 1, the German figure of 2.88 is sufficiently high to cause concern. No government in their right mind would report an R of 2.88 unless they were convinced that it was accurate. It follows, that there will likely be a negative effect on their economy as well as bringing alarm to the population until they have the reproduction under control. Which it currently isn't.

Large increases in short periods, like we have had, will have little significant change on our R because of circumstance, the same would not necessarily apply however, if there were to be a general rise in infections with the advent of more tourists arriving. This, for sure, is something that the government is going to have to watch very closely. Stories I am hearing would suggest very much otherwise, sadly.