Coronavirus in Fuerteventura - Discussion

[Ducks]

... but ultimately the safest course of action is to assume that it is loose in the population, and that anyone you interact with might have it. 

Assume everyone you come into contact with is a carrier, and behave accordingly. 

I have a bit of a problem with this. Despite all the stuff  we've heard in the UK about compassion and unity, there's a more insidious line being peddled IMO; other people are an existential threat. Stay away from them. Don't interact with them, and minimise contact time if you have to interact. Get supplies before them. Their survival directly threatens yours...

Whether you view this as sensible advice or paranoia can be a fine line...

I understand your point, but the unfortunate reality is that people are a threat. 100% of all murders, assaults, robberies, and any other crime you can think of are caused by people. 100% of the spread of this virus has been caused by people. This is not paranoia. This is absolute and incontrovertible fact. People are a threat, and now more than ever. 

Obviously at the beginning, this was nobody's fault. People were just trying to live their lives normally, unaware they were posing a threat to others, but in the last month or so it has become very clear that one person's actions can cause serious harm to themselves and their community, and people have still behaved stupidly, selfishly, and dangerously. People went to the pubs until they were thrown out, and in swarms to the parks until they were closed. People are still throwing house parties, refusing to respect the distancing rules in shops, and attending Events in every country that hasn't made this literally illegal. There are even people who refuse to accept that this virus is real and dangerous, and are insisting that it is a political hoax, or can be fought with herbal remedies, or only affects old people and foreigners.

You have no idea who is or isn't infected. Engaging with people puts you at risk, and potentially puts them at risk, too. Under normal circumstances, I'd say you can take whatever risks you want for yourself; generally, I believe every adult should be able to make that choice for himself. However, these are not normal circumstances, and people's choice to engage in risky behaviour affects everyone else: if you get the virus and insist on ignoring advice to maintain distance, it is not just you who will be affected. In 30 days, one person's infection can spread to 406 people. 406 people whose lives could be derailed or ended because 1 person didn't want to stay away from other people for a couple of weeks because it might look like paranoia or some kind of government meddling. 

I don't care if the government is meddling, and I don't care if it seems like paranoia. Right now, people are a huge threat because of the behaviours they are choosing, so I choose to try to protect myself, my loved ones, and my community. I am doing my best to prevent the spread of this disease by maintaining distance from others outside my household. If you wish to take from this the message that other people's survival threatens yours, that's your choice, but my take is that other people's actions threaten your survival, which is something very different. 

I can't change anyone else's actions, but I can change my own. This will increase my chances of survival— and help other people's chances, too. I would urge you and everyone to do the same.

[milestone 11]

Official update (as of yesterday 8PM):

1,380 cases of COVID-19 Coronavirus since the beginning of the crisis. 532 people hospitalised of which 110 in ICU, 77 discharged (nine in Fuerteventura) and 62 deceased.

All cases by island:

Tenerife 826
Gran Canaria 384
La Palma 68
Lanzarote 59
Fuerteventura 32
La Gomera 8
El Hierro 3

The total number of affected health professionals is 277.

The daily increase in case numbers is 118 - 9% increase. Third single digit in a raw! - a clicky link for the confused ones.

20% health professionals is worrying indeed. Do they not have PPE?

EDIT: added the quote so I can move all the following comments to the discussion thread. Sam.

[Spitfire58]

Unless I am wrong that also gives a mortality figure of 4.49% (deaths/total cases). That is quite high, isn’t it ??
Good to see the overall increase in the infection rate still on the down though.

[Ducks]

Unless I am wrong that also gives a mortality figure of 4.49% (deaths/total cases). That is quite high, isn’t it ??
Good to see the overall increase in the infection rate still on the down though.

Every country is massaging the numbers, they're just all taking their own approach.

Some are doing very little testing so they can say "We have a small number of people are infected", which keeps people from panicking about getting infected. Others are testing huge amount so they can say "We have a small percentage of deaths from infection", which keeps people from panicking about dying from infection. Ireland, I suspect, are playing both sides of this— they weren't testing very many people at all, and the testing criteria were very loose so they had a 90%+ negative rate from testing, meaning the number of infected was very low. Now that the deaths are starting to accelerate (as they are everywhere, and will continue to for a few weeks), they have tightened up testing regulations so we will be seeing higher numbers of infected to balance out the number of deaths and reduce the overall mortality rate.

Again, what you always have to remember is that the number of deaths can only be expressed as a fraction of people who tested positive. We don't have the real number of infections, so we can only use that. While there are almost certainly people who've died from this that were never tested and it says something else on their death cert (natural causes/asthma/pneumonia/etc.), there are far, far more people who've caught this disease and been so fine that they never sought testing. The actual mortality rate of infected people (vs. infected people who took a test and tested positive) is going to be massively lower than can be reported.

[Spitfire58]

Ah, ok. I was working another way but I see what you mean. The mortality rate of deaths over recorded infected gives the 4.49% that I mentioned but then that is not the mortality rate of the whole infection, it is the mortality rate of the recorded infected & serious enough to need medical intervention. But even at that, it means that of the people being tested & positive then 1 in 20 are dying, that is still quite a frightening number. IMHO

[Will]

The death rate depends on how you count both the dead and the infected. There was a study this week claiming the Italian infected are possibly 60X the official number. There was a study awhile back claiming 50% of the UK are potentially infected.

[Jason W]

The latest numbers from Spain are encouraging and follow a recent trend re new cases and recoveries, regardless of opinions on actual numbers which are much much higher, given most reported cases are the more serious it is getting better. 6120 new cases and 4096 recoveries. (the graphs are updated next day). Deaths numbers will shock us all but better to focus on the positives. 
On that note, i am now enjoying a virtual holiday on the island as i was due to arrive today and will watch some island you-tube videos tonight.
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/spain/

[Lorena]

Yes FuerteventuraHoy have confirmed one more positive case today let’s hope it stops rising very soon 🙏

[Ducks]

Yes Fuerteventurahoy have confirmed one more positive case today let’s hope it stops rising very soon 🙏

First it stops increasing, then it stops rising.

We're doing well so far. The island is really adhering to the distancing— not a soul on the streets most of the time, and even the shops are quite empty.  I'm very impressed with how people here have been behaving versus at home.

[windermeregolfer]

I haven't commented much on the COVID -19 situation but one thing that crosses my mind that is missing in all the figures and statistics is a comparison to the country  / islands total populations and numbers / comparison to the daily deaths by other causes.

Also now missing is the number who are recorded as as COVID - 19 deaths who had other serious health issues, I take Eddie Large's death reported yesterday as a COVID - 19 death but he had been admitted to hospital with heart failure as an example.

STAY SAVE AND WELL - STAY HOME